A importância da previsão de demanda nos processos de decisão estratégica empresarial: um estudo de caso em uma empresa de confecção em Caruaru-PE

Abstract

Every company that wants to make long-term progress needs to have elaborate planning, as well as whether demand It also conforms to what was previously defined. In an increasingly competitive marketplace, they need to look for differentials that enable them to make decisions faster and more efficiently so that they can predict in advance how they would behave in possible future scenarios. This paper presents a case study on the importance and influence of demand forecasting on business strategies, which serves as a guide for decision making and the allocation of productive resources. It was carried out at Saga Confecções, located in the city of Caruaru - PE, in order to select a demand forecasting model that best suits the company and apply it to the main products. The data was collected by the Gera 3 software system, which contains the company's sales history database. Through the analysis of data provided by the company, a quantitative demand forecasting method, called Linear Regression and Correlation Technique, was selected, which is based on the analysis of linear market behavior, taking into account its increasing or decreasing trends. Consequently, through the results found, comparisons were made between current demand, actual and demand with the application of the chosen forecasting method.. Where the selected model was considered satisfactory, as it presented low percentage errors and can be used as a demand forecasting tool for the other products of the company.